In Southeast Asia’s ever-shifting geopolitical landscape, influence does not always translate to affection.
The State of Southeast Asia 2025 survey by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute reveals a complicated picture: China is still seen as the region’s most politically and strategically influential power — but not without deep anxieties. And while the United States continues to play strategic catch-up, its growing acceptance hints at a longer game being played in the minds and hearts of ASEAN nations.
According to the survey, 37.9% of respondents from the ASEAN – 10 identify China as the region’s most influential political and strategic actor — still in the lead, but down from 43.9% last year. The exception? The Philippines, where the United States holds sway as the dominant political force.
Yet influence is not always welcome. A striking 68.8% of Southeast Asians express concern over China’s growing regional presence. The tension is most pronounced in Vietnam (91.2%) and the Philippines (83.0%), where maritime disputes and sovereignty fears loom large.
Still, the US has made notable gains. With 31.2% now seeing Washington as the most influential political-strategic power — up from 25.8% in 2024 — the superpower’s appeal appears to be strengthening, especially in the Philippines (48.5%), Singapore (37.2%), and Thailand (34.2%). Washington’s military and diplomatic presence in the region seems to resonate more today than it did a year ago.
But the US image remains polarising. While 51.0% of ASEAN respondents welcome American influence, 49.0% remain wary — particularly in Indonesia (75.4%), Thailand (65.7%), and Malaysia (63.8%). Still, compared to 2024, when 59.0% expressed concern, this year’s data signals a thawing of scepticism.
In the middle of these superpower dynamics stands ASEAN itself — modestly influential at 15.6%, but increasingly respected. Countries like Indonesia (32.9%) and Malaysia (25.0%) — the latter having held the ASEAN Chairmanship — see the regional bloc as a diplomatic anchor.
ASEAN may not wield the hard power of China or the strategic alliances of the US, but it is the only actor among the top three with a majority of respondents (69.9%) welcoming its growing role. That said, 30.1% remain doubtful, especially in Thailand (63.6%), Vietnam (50.0%), and Myanmar (37.5%), where frustrations over the bloc’s effectiveness in addressing crises such as the Myanmar conflict and South China Sea tensions continue to persist.
Full report here:https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-State-of-SEA-2025-1.pdf
Interestingly, so-called “middle powers” — Australia, the EU, India, Japan, South Korea, and the UK — are slowly carving out space in Southeast Asia’s political imagination, with modest but growing recognition of their influence.
In essence, Southeast Asia is caught between power and preference, between who calls the shots and who earns the region’s trust. The survey underscores what policymakers and analysts have long observed: winning ASEAN is not just about presence — it’s about perception, partnership, and patience.
-Agency
