SINGAPORE, April 22 — The ASEAN+3 region, encompassing Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and South Korea, is entering a period of economic uncertainty sparked by U.S. tariff hikes but is expected to hold steady, thanks to strong internal fundamentals and diversified trade structures, according to AMRO’s latest annual outlook.
The ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2025, published on April 15 by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), paints a cautious yet optimistic picture. It follows the April 2 announcement by the U.S. of comprehensive tariff increases, which AMRO described as an “unprecedented trade shock.”
Hoe Ee Khor, AMRO’s Chief Economist, noted, “This is a complex situation, but ASEAN+3 economies are in a much better place to withstand shocks compared to the past.”
The impact is far-reaching: 13 of 14 ASEAN+3 members are affected, with non-China economies facing a trade-weighted average tariff of 26%. The region may see short-term declines in trade activity and capital flows, with growth forecasts adjusted downward to potentially 3.4% in 2026.
Still, prior to the tariff announcement, the region had been on track for growth above 4% annually. Low inflation, strong domestic consumption, and increasing intra-regional trade offer stability against global headwinds.
Governments in the region are expected to deploy stimulus measures where needed. Most retain room for monetary easing, while also employing liquidity tools to safeguard financial systems.
The report also highlighted the declining dependence on U.S. markets, with ASEAN+3’s exports to the U.S. now just 15% of total exports—reflecting a deliberate strategy of diversification.
Looking forward, AMRO urged countries to focus on long-term reforms. These include boosting services productivity, green innovation, industrial upgrades, and deeper digital trade integration.
“Even as global trade dynamics shift, ASEAN+3’s adaptability and unity will be key to maintaining sustainable growth,” said Khor.
